Ep 18: Understand the Yield Curve, Treasury Bonds, and Stock Market Impacts

Jess: So Jess, I saw you posted on the Market MakeHer Instagram yesterday and I had to read that post you did where you had the background with Jim Cramer or getting to push all the buttons.

Jessie: I'm just going to read it.

Jess: You said the market offloaded duration risk of a treasury announcement of supply.

Jessie: The market rallied in response.

Jess: For context, the same announcement three months ago sent the S&P 500 down 8% and yields up by 100 basis points.

Jessie: And I do like how you said in that, if you don't understand what this means, read the description below for more, because I obviously did that.

Jess: I'm still a little confused.

Jessie: What are yield curves? What are inverted yield curves? What does this have to do with the market? Why do self-directed investors like us even care? And how does this make our money make money? Okay, let's break down yields.

Jess: Let's break down the treasury.

Jessie: More importantly, the impacts this has on the market.

Jess: This one's for you.

Jessie: It's your mystical crystal ball into interest rates and risks.

Jess: Let's go.

Jessie: Are we scrying today? That sounds fun.

Jess: Let's do it.

Jessie: I don't even know what that word means.

Jess: It's like when you scry the crystal ball, scrying is like looking to predict the future, like fortune telling.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: We do it with different things.

Jessie: You're listening to Market MakeHer, the self-directed investing education podcast that breaks down the stock market from her perspective.

Jess: We are your hosts.

Jessie: I'm Jessie Dinwi, the investing apprentice learning alongside you, asking all the questions that as one listener worded it in a recent review, are too embarrassed to ask or just didn't know.

Jess: Let me be embarrassed for you.

Jessie: This is a safe space for all my investing questions and yours.

Jess: Yes.

Jessie: Like Taylor Swift did for all those football fans when she started dating Travis, safe space to understand football, safe space to understand the stock market.

Jess: You're Taylor in this scenario, Jessie.

Jessie: That's great.

Jess: I just love being Taylor.

Jessie: And I'm Jess Inskip, new Swifty resident finance expert here to apply my 15 years of industry experience to help answer those questions.

Jess: What happened yesterday was a result of an announcement that the treasury made.

Jessie: It had an effect on yields.

Jess: It made the stock market skyrocket.

Jessie: And we should really break down every aspect of that.

Jess: Well, I think in order to know that, let's start with the treasury.

Jessie: Like who is the treasury and what do they do? The treasury, it's like the finance department of the U.S.

Jess: government.

Jessie: You know how we talked about the debt ceiling and how we raised it for the hundredth time, literally.

Jess: This is the way that they finance that debt.

Jessie: When we say, OK, you can have more debt.

Jess: How do you get it? The treasury is the finance department.

Jessie: And they basically, in a very interesting analogy way, go get more credit cards for the government to spend.

Jess: How do they? That's their job.

Jessie: It's the type of securities that they issue.

Jess: We call them treasury securities, but they are treasury bonds.

Jessie: They are called T-bills, treasury bills and treasury notes.

Jess: The names just have varying security maturities, meaning some are issued for like six months, others for three months, two years, 10 years, 30 years.

Jessie: Those are just the varying lengths of maturity.

Jess: Your credit card expires at this date, but you can't get a new one.

Jessie: Oh, OK.

Jess: What are the different lengths of time? Is it the same as like how a CD works or is this different? In a way, there is this set amount of value and you expect to get interest on that set amount of value.

Jessie: But now you're introducing trading into it, which means that set amount of value, like if you get a CD for ten thousand dollars, you expect to get five percent.

Jess: That ten thousand dollars could be traded on the secondary market through supply and demand.

Jessie: And so if there's more buyers, there's a lot of demand that may make the price go up.

Jess: So it might be like ten thousand five hundred.

Jessie: That means the yield is going to adjust because you're getting five percent on the principal amount of ten thousand.

Jess: If you bought that for ten thousand five hundred, you're not really getting five percent.

Jessie: Is the yield the same thing as an interest rate? And like what's a coupon? The coupon is like the interest rate that you'd get on the CD.

Jess: It's the fixed amount of interest that's issued with the debt.

Jessie: But the yield, it can change on the market through supply and demand.

Jess: We're basically buying off government debt.

Jessie: They're taking out credit cards from us.

Jess: We're giving them money.

Jessie: And then they're going to promise some sort of interest back in return over however long of the time is allocated for that specific debt we're buying.

Jess: Exactly.

Jessie: They are issuing debt.

Jess: We're the public buying that debt.

Jessie: That's why they have credit ratings.

Jess: Can they pay us back that debt? That makes sense now.

Jessie: If there's credit rating for the U.S.

Jess: government, you know, it's still pretty high.

Jessie: So that means it's reliable to buy treasury bonds or their debt from right now because they pay their debts back.

Jess: Is that what that's saying? Yeah.

Jessie: So this is such an important part when you're doing that thing where these aren't pre-planted questions and you're just asking the right ones.

Jess: I love it.

Jessie: This is considered risk free money, meaning the government always pays their debt.

Jess: A Lannister always pays their debt.

Jessie: The U.S.

Jess: government are the Lannisters.

Jessie: That's a terrible analogy.

Jess: So so far the U.S.

Jessie: government has always paid their debts back and that's why they have a pretty good credit rating.

Jess: That's why those kinds of products are considered as safer investment to buy, right? Or like less risky.

Jessie: Yes.

Jess: It's actually considered risk free would be the term.

Jessie: Risk free I'm going to get 5%.

Jess: So why would I invest in the stock market? That's the comparison there, which we need to break down further.

Jessie: But there's some other things that we have to explain first.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: So I should talk more about short term rates versus long term rates and how that goes into the yield curve.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: What are those short term rates versus the long term rates? Everything has a benchmark rate.

Jess: Shorter term rates, their benchmark is the federal funds rate, which is set by the Fed, the FOMC.

Jessie: Longer term rates are more by market mechanics and forces like supply and demand.

Jess: The rates are supposed to compensate you for purchasing power.

Jessie: The Fed sets the federal funds rate.

Jess: That's going to be your short term rates benchmark.

Jessie: That's six months.

Jess: Now you go to two years, 10 years, and then you go to 30 years.

Jessie: As you have more longer dated maturity, you should be compensated for that.

Jess: As in you should get more yield, more interest.

Jessie: You should get more money for your money because you are locking in your funds for much longer.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: They're getting to use your money for much longer, right? Exactly.

Jess: And you should be compensated for that.

Jessie: The short term rates are highly affected by what the Fed does.

Jess: So if the Fed raises interest rates, this is called duration risk and interest rate risk.

Jessie: If the shorter dated rate starts raising up, those longer dated bonds, they're going to go down.

Jess: The short term rates are higher than those previous long term rates, then what happens? When that happens, that's what creates the inverted yield curve.

Jessie: Oh, so it's an inverted yield curve.

Jess: So the long term securities should be making people a lot more return, more money on their money.

Jessie: But now the short term ones are even higher.

Jess: So that inverts the yield curve.

Jessie: So instead of it being like an upward slope, it's literally a downward slope.

Jess: Is that the difference? That's right.

Jessie: And the slope is what's really important.

Jess: And this is how it's a crystal ball.

Jessie: And remember, it's market mechanics and market forces that adjust the longer term yields.

Jess: If the Fed funds rate is too low, and it was 0% for like 10 years, right? Or close to zero since the great financial crisis.

Jessie: That means expectations of future inflation could rise.

Jess: If it rises, then the following effects is longer term rates, they're going to go up and they're going to compensate for the loss because of the decline in purchasing power.

Jessie: The reason why we invest in the stock market is you have your cash sitting in a checking account and we have 2% inflation year over year.

Jess: If your cash is just sitting there, it's losing its value over time.

Jessie: Inflation that's at that balanced place of 2% year over year, which is the Fed's target, is a good thing.

Jess: Because that means that the economy is growing, consumers are strong, that's normal growth.

Jessie: The Fed doesn't want too much growth, but they don't want too little growth.

Jess: It's literally this balance.

Jessie: And you can see that growth expectation into the bond market.

Jess: The sloping upwards yield curve means that growth is expected literally through each maturity date, and that's good.

Jessie: When it's inverted, that means they expect to slow down in the US economy.

Jess: We call it inverted on the short end.

Jessie: This is where all the terminology is.

Jess: You'll say short end, long end of the curve.

Jessie: Short end means shorter dated securities.

Jess: A normal yield curve is supposed to slope upward.

Jessie: The longer dated securities have higher yields.

Jess: And you're saying the inverted curve is when the shorter term securities have higher yields.

Jessie: So it was inverted and now it's de-inverting.

Jess: So it's going back to its normal yield curve? Yes.

Jessie: But you would think that a dis-inverting yield curve means that there's expectations of economic growth, normal economic growth, so we should be happy about that.

Jess: You want it to be dis-inverting for that reason, not because, oh, they expect the Fed to have rates higher for longer or it's an insight to direction, but you have to put all these other things together.

Jessie: This is my personal opinion, is the Fed did have an announcement yesterday and they kept rates exactly where they were for the Q&A.

Jess: He even said it does not appear that an expectation of nearer term policy rates is affecting longer duration bonds.

Jessie: We say that the bond market is doing the Fed's job for them, and that's because if the bond market is suddenly going up in yields, that's when mortgages hit 8%.

Jess: That's when you start feeling it.

Jessie: And so the Fed doesn't have to raise interest rates because the market did it for them.

Jess: And the market did it because of supply and demand? Because of supply and demand and treasury issuance.

Jessie: Every quarter they announce how many treasury securities that they're going to issue for what duration.

Jess: Duration just means their maturity dates.

Jessie: They announced literally last quarter $160 billion.

Jess: That would be for this quarter.

Jessie: That's a ton of money.

Jess: It's the way that they're funding their debt.

Jessie: So that's a high amount.

Jess: Huge amount.

Jessie: Is that because we're in a lot of debt? It is.

Jess: Well, we raised the debt ceiling.

Jessie: We got to go get the money.

Jess: So this is how they go get the money.

Jessie: And it was $160 billion.

Jess: That's a lot of supply.

Jessie: It's a supply influx.

Jess: And when there is a supply influx, and remember the market is forward looking, so they had no idea how many more.

Jessie: What was the treasury going to do this quarter? Are they going to issue another $160 billion? How much supply is going to be there? And if there's a lot of supply, that means that yields are going to rise.

Jess: It's that love triangle that us, the investor, have with the fixed income market, or the treasury market in this case, and the stock market.

Jessie: It's, hey, this is a good yield right now.

Jess: Come buy me, please.

Jessie: Wait.

Jess: So there's a stock market.

Jessie: Is there also a bond market? There is.

Jess: So the love triangle is between us, the self-directed investor, and then the stock market and the bond market.

Jessie: And the bond market's over here being like, look, I know the stock market is sexy and enticing and exciting, but look at us.

Jess: The bond market's starting to get pretty hot too.

Jessie: So maybe you want to come over here, hang out with us a little bit, buy some of us, right? It's risk-free rate of return.

Jess: So you have to determine, if I can invest my assets, get this super high interest rate, is that worth the risk of the stock market? Because you're looking at risk versus reward.

Jessie: With the stock market, it's a bigger roller coaster.

Jess: This is the wine and Disneyland that's been there forever.

Jessie: It's the small world after all.

Jess: You know that there's no risk of you going on that.

Jessie: The dolls are a little bit scary.

Jess: It's not like a huge drop or a huge anything.

Jessie: It's very steady for the most part.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: You feel confident taking a baby on there.

Jess: It's going to be fine.

Jessie: But you wouldn't on a roller coaster.

Jess: That's quite dangerous.

Jessie: And that's because of the risk that's involved with it.

Jess: So you have to make sure that you're compensated for risk.

Jessie: Still less risky or still no risk, but you're getting compensated better than usual.

Jess: Is there like I guess the scenario where it wouldn't be risk-free if the government falls or something? We'd have some bigger problems, but that's why you look at Fitch and Moody's and S&P to tell us the credit rating, the credit score of the government.

Jessie: They do pay their debts.

Jess: If you can get more yield that's risk-free, people will sell out of stocks.

Jessie: So bye-bye stocks.

Jess: That sends the stock market down, and then they move over to this market.

Jessie: Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship.

Jess: We can do the math.

Jessie: I think once you do the math on that, which is I know no fun, but it makes sense.

Jess: So say you've got something that's $1,000.

Jessie: It's a note of some sort.

Jess: So treasury security.

Jessie: That's its face value.

Jess: That's what it's called is $1,000 is the face value.

Jessie: So you have to buy it.

Jess: And right.

Jessie: It's not an IPO.

Jess: It's its initial auction.

Jessie: Same type of concept, but it gets a yield of 3%.

Jess: So it's auctioned off at a yield of 3%.

Jessie: When market mechanics come in and say that dropped to like $975, the yield's going to be 3.3%.

Jess: So the yield's going to go up because you're still getting 3% on $1,000, but you paid 970 for it.

Jessie: It basically went on sale.

Jess: So you're getting the interest on the $1,000 number or the 975 number? You're getting the interest on the $1,000 number.

Jessie: So that's how you're getting extra.

Jess: That's happening right now? That happens all the time.

Jessie: That's market mechanics.

Jess: So that's supply and demand, and that's how the yields change because the inverse happens.

Jessie: So like if it were to go up to 1,025, then that's a decline of like 2.7%.

Jess: So now your yield is 2.7%, not 3%.

Jessie: You have a lower yield because you paid more.

Jess: As a self-directed investor, what am I looking for if I'm looking into buying these types of fixed income securities? What are the words or what are the things that I'm looking for? So this is where ETFs make the market really accessible.

Jessie: You can easily invest in this via an ETF.

Jess: Stay with us.

Jessie: We'll be right back.

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Jessie: Okay.

Jess: When you do that, you just pull a screener and you select category fixed income or category treasuries.

Jessie: That's it.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: Is that ETF automatically selling off like the...

Jess: I mean, yes, like things expire too.

Jessie: So when the short bond expires, you get that extra income in your little basket, and then that can keep going into other things depending on how you have it set up, right? Yeah, but the ETF would do that for you.

Jess: You've got a little fund manager, literally have a fund manager.

Jessie: He's not little, he's there.

Jess: Regular human.

Jessie: Yeah, that is managing that.

Jess: And if it's all in the prospectus, but they'll tell you the purpose of it.

Jessie: These are income securities, like literally fixed income.

Jess: You get a fixed amount of income.

Jessie: It's in the name.

Jess: It's in the name.

Jessie: Back to what happened.

Jess: This is why things change.

Jessie: So there was a big supply, yields went up, yields go up.

Jess: That's a more attractive place.

Jessie: You're going to sell out of equities.

Jess: At least, maybe not the average investor is selling directly out of equities, but they might be selling out of equities into exposure with ETFs.

Jessie: That could happen.

Jess: And definitely hedge funds and big institutional investors are selling out of equities and getting that risk-free return while it's high.

Jessie: That moment has passed.

Jess: It's very important to know.

Jessie: Might still be there for the two years, but not the longer dated.

Jess: I want to make that abundantly clear.

Jessie: Don't go out and buy a bunch of longer dated maturities right now.

Jess: But you might be able to lock in some good ones on the two years.

Jessie: So I'm okay saying that.

Jess: That is not financial advice.

Jessie: I am not a financial advisor.

Jess: Disclosure, disclosure, disclosure.

Jessie: Yields were so attractive and it was like, hey, come get me.

Jess: Everybody got out of the stocks.

Jessie: That was last quarter's announcement that Yellen, the treasury secretary, who by the way, used to be a Fed speaker like Papa Powell, the one before him actually.

Jess: So very, very interesting to know.

Jessie: Now we're fast forward to this quarter.

Jess: We're still got to get that supply of 160 billion.

Jessie: We know about that.

Jess: The market's forward looking, but she says, hey, we're going to issue more supply, but we're going to increase it only by 10 billion this time.

Jessie: It's still a lot of supply like that's super heavy in comparison, but their rate of change, like 160 billion to 10 billion, slowed from quarter to quarter.

Jess: I remember we had everything.

Jessie: That was a lot.

Jess: That was a big dip, I guess, in supply.

Jessie: So now it's, okay, I've locked in my best yield possible over here.

Jess: Time to get back into growth.

Jessie: Stock market rallies.

Jess: Very important.

Jessie: Small stock market update.

Jess: We've been in earnings season.

Jessie: I know we're going to do a stock market update probably next episode.

Jess: We've had some weird anomalies happen within the market.

Jessie: There'd be some really good earnings and the market did not care.

Jess: It did not move higher.

Jessie: It would just punish it.

Jess: And it's because of the selloffs and the availability of yield over in the bond market.

Jessie: The market can finally focus on what matters, which is earnings.

Jess: There is growth and that is doing well.

Jessie: And that's why it released duration overhang.

Jess: The announcement of there being less supply of income securities in the U.S.

Jessie: being issued made people switch back over to their long-term growth goals in the stock market.

Jess: So they put a halt on their bond buying and now they're looking back at their stocks again.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: The U.S.

Jessie: still has their debt and they still need to sell these things to get the money they need for their debts, right? How are we able to track the bond market? What are the indices with the bond market? Normally, when you are logging on to Fidelity or wherever, they're going to have yields listed.

Jess: So you'll see 10-year, you'll see 30-year, you'll see 2-year, you'll see 6-month.

Jessie: That's a way you can watch it.

Jess: If you hear the term inverted yield curve or yield curve, sometimes there's a spread between the 10 and the 2-year, like the difference of the two.

Jessie: I think there was a comment on that post where we talked about it and he's like, what if that flips negative? Or what happens if it flips positive? And so those are ways I think would take a whole episode to explain that process.

Jess: It can tell us how investors feel about economic growth.

Jessie: That's what the bond market can tell us.

Jess: You said it really great last episode, the market's so fragile.

Jessie: It is fragile, but there's a lot of moving pieces to keep it there.

Jess: So if one thing kind of falls out, they all kind of move together because Fed policy is going to impact this market.

Jessie: This market is going to impact the consumer directly.

Jess: When you deposit your money into a bank, they're going to take your funds and they're going to lend it out a lot, but they're going to physically take your funds and they're going to invest it in these type of securities.

Jessie: And that's why these are tied to usually loan rates.

Jess: Right.

Jessie: That makes sense.

Jess: That's all coming together.

Jessie: How are we using all this to tell the future or tell the future? If it is a normal yield curve, great.

Jess: The economy is expected to grow over time.

Jessie: If it's steepening, that might be a little too fast, but that also means that inflation might be a little high in the short run.

Jess: That could be good for stocks, but then bad if whatever the Fed does.

Jessie: If it's inverted, not 100% of the time, but a lot of the time, that indicates a recession is coming.

Jess: It was inverted.

Jessie: It's de-inverting.

Jess: The yield curve is your forecasting, your crystal ball of economic growth.

Jessie: Your GDP and economic data is the results.

Jess: And then that should be reflected on earnings because if there's growth in the economy, people should be spending more.

Jessie: Stocks should be going up because they're making more.

Jess: All related.

Jessie: Put it all together.

Jess: Side note, it's not like only Americans can buy these fixed income securities or buy debt from the U.S.

Jessie: government.

Jess: Nearly half of all the U.S.

Jessie: foreign-owned debt comes from five countries.

Jess: As of January 2023, this is data from the U.S.

Jessie: Department of Treasury, the top country that owns 1.08 trillion of our debt is Japan, which I did not realize.

Jess: And then China's after them.

Jessie: I did not know that.

Jess: Such a good point, though.

Jessie: People say, hey, China owns all our debt.

Jess: This is how.

Jessie: They literally bought the treasuries because they thought it was a good investment.

Jess: Yeah, that's right.

Jessie: Because the U.S.

Jess: always pays their debts.

Jessie: It is called risk-free securities.

Jess: It's a little love triangle.

Jessie: This is my safe bet, not a risk.

Jess: It's going to compensate me.

Jessie: Great stock market.

Jess: It's going to offer you growth.

Jessie: That's also why technology is a little more volatile.

Jess: Where do you have the opportunity for growth? Most technology stocks.

Jessie: Hopefully, this just adds clarity of how it all works.

Jess: And there are some takeaways.

Jessie: Not only it's, OK, if you see this increase in yield and you want to capitalize on that, you can buy an ETF to add exposure to these type of assets.

Jess: This is part of having an diversified portfolio, is having a portion that's risk free.

Jessie: Someone might say, hey, if you're saving for something for six months and you know it's going to be six months to buy a house or whatever, it's OK to put it in a six month treasury bill instead of a high yield savings account.

Jess: Yes, there is slightly more risk because it is a market, but it is so, so, so, so, so minuscule and minimal in the risk scale.

Jessie: I'm going to be looking at the bond market myself.

Jess: I feel like I'm not diversified enough in it.

Jessie: Why do I care about this as an investor and what do we do? And we should have a another analyzed stock updated version for this market environment.

Jess: So the reason why I hit technology first is because technology innovates and it takes a lot of capital to innovate.

Jessie: So if you are a company that borrow, you rely on financing your debt.

Jess: We're considered a lean company here Market MakeHer because our costs are like minimal, we can be honest with.

Jessie: Yeah, they're under a hundred dollars a month to get this thing going because we run it.

Jess: It's just us.

Jessie: That means we're lean.

Jess: Like we're going to survive an economic downturn.

Jessie: Right.

Jess: Right.

Jessie: But if we couldn't, if we required a lot of financing to keep this thing going and all of a sudden the cost for us to finance and we were a public company, that's going to make the value of us go down.

Jess: Oh yeah.

Jessie: Very quickly.

Jess: That's why it goes to tech first in addition to what it does to the dollar and overseas.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: So this is how you apply it.

Jessie: Now, if this is the new normal of higher interest rates, which means higher financing costs, no longer are the days of 0% interest rates.

Jess: That's great for high yield savings accounts and all of that aspect.

Jessie: But that also means financing is going to be higher.

Jess: And so companies who rely on financing, AKA have a lot of debt, that's going to come to maturity and they might need more.

Jessie: I would stay away from those.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: That's what we would take away from this.

Jessie: It all comes together.

Jess: If you invest in a stock market, you have to at least listen to this episode and understand how it works and you can leave it there if you want, but you just need to at least understand this.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: This is a good episode.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: That was a lot of really great information.

Jessie: Definitely a lot of things that I did not know.

Jess: I didn't know all the things about the treasury, the yield curve, all of our debt, how it affects the market.

Jessie: It's really good being able to pull all the pieces together so we can get the full picture of how this all works and how everything affects each other.

Jess: I'm probably going to have some follow-up questions for you about some of these things.

Jessie: And if any of our listeners do, you can holler at us on any of our social media channels or via marketmakeherpodcast.com.

Jess: We'll also are considering having an episode where we just blast answer questions.

Jessie: So let us know if that's something you want.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: This is another one of those topics though.

Jess: You can go down a very, very deep rabbit hole.

Jessie: I think we have so many episodes on this type of market and those mechanics, but I just think it's so important to put the puzzle together and just get some clarity.

Jess: So thank you for making it this far.

Jessie: If you did learn something today and it gave you clarity, let us know in the comments and share it with your family.

Jess: Spread that financial literacy.

Jessie: We would certainly appreciate it.

Jess: The algorithm would appreciate it, but they might appreciate it too.

Jessie: Share the wealth.

Jess: And until next time, we're building knowledge and we're breaking down those barriers.

Jessie: So keep on tuning in.

Jess: Remember, investing involves risk.

Jessie: There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities.

Jess: Market MakeHer provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only.

Jessie: We are not registered financial advisors and do not provide personalized investment advice.

Jess: Any information provided by Market MakeHer on our website or podcast is not intended to be a substitute for professional financial advice.

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