Ep 35: What Is CPI, PPI & PCE Price Index (Indices) in Fed Speak - Decoded

Come with us as we leap through the gallows and levitate down WallStreet. 🔮 Today we're discussing the most recent FOMC Press Conference led by the Hawkish Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and what it all means when he talks about the CPI & PCE Price Index. There's also a quick SMU (stock market update).

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What is PPI and CPI in Fed Speak?

In ⁠Episode 15⁠ we explained PPI & CPI:

PPI: producer price index = is the perspective of the seller  (a measurement of the price change domestic producers/businesses get for their goods)

CPI: consumer price index = is the perspective of the buyer (used to measure how much the U.S. consumer spends monthly)

• Methodology and definition:  ⁠https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/data.htm⁠
• Latest report: ⁠https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#⁠

New Vocabulary Word: Tapering

Tapering is a monetary policy used by the Federal Reserve to phase out or reduce the number of assets purchased each month. Listen for more info.

Inflation Is Still Too High, When Are Interest Rates Getting Cut?

Remember in ⁠Episode 30 ⁠when we talked about how The Fed is projecting to cut rates 3 times this year (and how that's good for getting loans and lower CC interest rates, but bad for our HYSA)? Well now the Federal Reserve is not confident enough in the data to cut those interest rates just yet. They're being left at 5.25-5.5% (for the banks, but then we will still be seeing higher loan rates).

The Fed's Dual Mandate

Papa Powell stated that maximum employment and stable inflation at 2% is still the objective.

So what is inflation at right now? 

• CPI 3.5% YoY (reported in April, for March) Core is at 3.8% ⁠https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm⁠
• PPI 2.8% YoY (reported in April, for March) Core is at 2.1% 
• ⁠https://www.bls.gov/charts/producer-price-index/final-demand-12-month-percent-change.htm⁠

PCE 2.7% YoY (reported in April, for March) Next release May 31st Core is at 2.8% YoY ⁠https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2024⁠

Low Unemployment Rates & Labor Demands

The Fed also said unemployment rates are low and there are labor demands, but in which industries? We know a lot of people struggling to find jobs in marketing and tech right now, so which industries have labor demand? Here are 2 tools to help you find out:

⁠https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm⁠

⁠https://www.bls.gov/ooh/most-new-jobs.htm⁠

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