Ep 46. Fed Update: What is Event Risk? Where Are Our Rate Cuts?

We recorded this on 08/01/2024, knowing that unemployment numbers will not drop until this podcast airs on 08/02/2024, and that might also change so keep that in mind.

**Employment Report Update from Jess**

Fed's View on Labor Market:Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the changes in the labor market are "broadly consistent with a normalization process." However, policymakers are closely watching for signs of deeper issues.

Unemployment Report Highlights:

  • Unemployment Rate: Jumped to 4.3% in July, the highest in nearly three years.
  • Hiring Slowdown: Significant reduction in hiring activities.
  • Concerns: Increased fears of a weakening labor market and potential recession.
  • Trend: This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase in unemployment, rising from a five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.
  • Cause: The slowdown is driven by weak hiring rather than layoffs.

Following the release of the employment data: U.S. Treasury yields dropped, meaning bond prices rose and we are in a sell off.

Fed Meeting Notes aka The Powell-Point

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced on the latest FOMC press conference that there will NOT be any rate cuts. We're shocked, really. Let's go through the data!

It's no secret that most of us Americans are feeling the impact of higher rates to borrow money and inflation. But finally! It's not just us smaller consumers feeling the heat, larger companies are as they reported revenue declines. And if the big companies feel it, they will have to make some changes.  

Price Stability + Max Employment & Event Risk

Something feels broken. The Fed has a toolkit to use when something is broken. Which means: rate cuts!

What does it mean for you?

We might see some sell-off in certain sectors. But that is normal rotation. Remember, this is not financial advice, but we have some episodes on What Is Inflation, CD Laddering, Bond ETFs, Are We In a Recession, etc., for you to understand what happens when the Yield Curve is de-inverted and what happens when rates inevitably get cut.  Are you going to move your HYSA money into a Treasury, CD Ladder, or Bond Fund?      

Investing Rollercoaster

DON'T be an emotional investor. You are buckled in for the long ride. The full rollercoaster. Time in the market is the most important and we've seen that even though the market goes up and down, the S&P 500 has continued to go up over the history of time.

Also, when rates get cut, it usually trickles down to us with more competitive loan prices (auto loan, home loans, etc.)  

Episode Equity

Jessie's Questions

Q: What is the main mission of the Market Maker podcast?
A: The main mission of the Market Maker podcast is to demystify the stock market and make it relatable, providing education to make listeners informed, self-directed investors.
Q: What did Jerome Powell, referred to as "Papa Powell," do that surprised the market?
A: Jerome Powell did not cut rates, which was unexpected as many thought he would.
Q: What are the three categories covered by the Market Maker podcast?
A: The three categories are education and explain, apply it and put it to work, and keep it current.
Q: What is the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve as discussed in the podcast?
A: The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is price stability and maximum employment.
Q: What did Jerome Powell suggest about future rate cuts in the podcast?
A: Jerome Powell gave an indication that there are rate cuts on the table for September, with a 100% probability that it will happen.
Q: How did the stock market react to Jerome Powell's press conference?
A: The stock market skyrocketed, with the S&P 500 increasing by over 100 points during the conference.
Q: What impact did the unemployment number released after the Fed meeting have on the market?
A: The release of the unemployment number caused the market to tank and go right back to where it was before the surge.
Q: What are the inflation measures mentioned in the podcast, and which one is the Fed's preferred gauge?
A: The inflation measures mentioned are CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), with PCE being the Fed's preferred gauge.
Q: How did Jerome Powell's stance on interest rates impact the market's anticipation?
A: Jerome Powell's stance led to a 100% market anticipation of a rate cut in September, influencing market behavior and expectations.
Q: What are the potential consequences of the Federal Reserve cutting rates too late, as discussed in the podcast?
A: Cutting rates too late could push the economy into a recession, as it's typically the Fed's actions, such as raising interest rates, that lead to recessions.
Q: According to the podcast, how does Jerome Powell view the current risk to the employment mandate?
A: Jerome Powell views the downside risk to the employment mandate as clear, indicating concerns about potential deterioration in the labor market.
Q: What is the significance of the neutral rate mentioned in the podcast?
A: The neutral rate refers to the Federal Reserve's target rate, which is currently 5.25 to 5.5%, and Powell's focus on this rate suggests a balancing of risks with inflation and employment.
Q: How does Jerome Powell's communication strategy differ from previous Fed chairs?
A: Jerome Powell is the only Fed chair that gives a conference after every Fed meeting, using it as a tool to communicate with the market.
Q: What did the podcast suggest about the timing of investment decisions in the current market environment?
A: The podcast suggests that timing in the market is crucial and advises against making emotional investment decisions based on short-term market reactions to Federal Reserve actions.

Episode Transcript

Jess: Hi, Jessie.

Jessie: Have you seen the market today? I got a bunch of alerts on my phone that lots of stocks were down.

Jess: So I have a feeling something is awry.

Jessie: This is the first time that I haven't agreed with Papa Powell.

Jess: And I think we have what's called event risk.

Jessie: It's really interesting what happened, but there's a lot more data to digest.

Jess: So let's talk about Papa Powell.

Jessie: And I've got a PowerPoint today.

Jess: Oh, a PowerPoint.

Jessie: I love your Powell points.

Jess: You're listening to Market MakeHer, the self-directed investing education podcast on a mission to make you an informed, self-directed investor.

Jessie: We demystify the stock market and make it relatable from her perspective.

Jess: That's us.

Jessie: We're her.

Jess: And all are welcome here.

Jessie: If you're new here, we just want to make sure that we give you a little bit about ourselves.

Jess: And if you're not, welcome back.

Jessie: We love you.

Jess: Thanks for coming.

Jessie: And whoever left their review about the Taylor Swift analogies, thank you.

Jess: That was the best birthday present ever.

Jessie: Our three categories, first, we have education and explain.

Jess: We explain how things work to make it make sense.

Jessie: We call this your foundation.

Jess: Jessie's job is to ask the questions, keep us out of financial jargon land, because this is teacher-learner style.

Jessie: She acts as the learner.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: I have a lot of questions.

Jess: Number two, we apply it and put it to work.

Jessie: This is where we move from education to edu-action.

Jess: We literally show you what buttons to click on your brokerage firm and explain it along the way.

Jessie: And number three, what we're doing today is keep it current.

Jess: We talk about what's happening in the market.

Jessie: Because guess what? Markets change.

Jess: There are impacts on your portfolio.

Jessie: And we want to make sure that you understand it.

Jess: We are long-term investors.

Jessie: But we're here to make it make sense.

Jess: I'm Jessie Dinwi, question asker extraordinaire, keeping Jess out of financial jargon land, like she mentioned, here to learn with you.

Jessie: I'm Jess Inskip, always stuck in Taylor Swift land.

Jess: I've been working in finance for way too long.

Jessie: It's been 15 years.

Jess: And now, Jessie convinced me to start this podcast after I give up my financial licenses.

Jessie: So here we go.

Jess: Yeah, so let's make some sense of what Papa Powell, that is, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, what he said, what, yesterday at the meeting, Wednesday? Educate us.

Jessie: Start with some headlines.

Jess: My mind was blown, OK? He did not cut rates.

Jessie: We were expecting for him to cut rates.

Jess: Yes, I think everyone really thought that he was going to this time.

Jessie: And I love how you messaged me, and you're like, I'm watching this.

Jess: And I was like, this is so good.

Jessie: Look what I've turned you into.

Jess: I'm like, are rates not getting cut? What is happening? Why not? I love it.

Jessie: But he also set the table for it.

Jess: So he is the only Fed chair that gives us a conference every Fed meeting.

Jessie: No one else has ever done that.

Jess: And that's a tool.

Jessie: Yeah, the tool is the words he uses, right? Exactly, because the market is what, Jessie? Forward-looking.

Jess: That's right, which I think is so interesting, is he said in this press conference, too, dynamics change.

Jessie: He mentioned that the yield curve inverted, but still there is no recession here.

Jess: It's the longest it's ever been inverted.

Jessie: And that caused me to lose a little bit of credibility, to be honest.

Jess: But then he stated, this time around, the markets are always anticipating my every move and react.

Jessie: And in my mind, I'm like, dude, the markets are forward-looking.

Jess: They've been doing that all the time, all the time.

Jessie: Anyways, he did give indication that there are rate cuts on the table for September, 100% probability that will happen.

Jess: We'll go through that in a bit.

Jessie: Because of that, markets skyrocketed.

Jess: So this right here, I have 230.

Jessie: That's when the conference started.

Jess: The S&P 500 is at 5,435.

Jessie: It went all the way to above 5,550.

Jess: So that's a good 100 points on the S&P 500, 100-plus.

Jessie: And that's a lot.

Jess: But then today, we got an unemployment number.

Jessie: And then it caused us to tank and go right back to where we were.

Jess: What was the unemployment number? Do we have it? Yeah, we're going to go through all of the data and what happened and what it's looking at, going through the speech.

Jessie: You know I love Taylor Swift.

Jess: And we watch Powell speeches for Easter eggs, just like I expect the Taylor Swift Reputation album, hoping that it drops tomorrow.

Jessie: We don't know, but it seems like it might.

Jess: Maybe she'll give us that indication.

Jessie: We do the same thing with Powell, though.

Jess: What is he saying? What is he looking at? What are the Easter eggs to give us an indication of his intentions? For people who don't know what he does, I think it's great to give an idea of his job.

Jessie: So he has a dual mandate, which is price stability and maximum employment.

Jess: That's his job, two things.

Jessie: And it's also a committee.

Jess: He's just the chair of it.

Jessie: There's 19 members in the committee.

Jess: He has been focusing on this part of the dual mandate, he told us, price stability.

Jessie: And he gave us an indication that that's doing all right.

Jess: Great.

Jessie: His job is to make sure inflation, that's what price stability means, isn't going crazy.

Jess: We don't want prices to be too high.

Jessie: We don't want it to be too high too fast.

Jess: 2% inflation is good, or a little bit inflation is good, because that means the economy is growing.

Jessie: We want wage inflation to grow too, not just prices going up.

Jess: So that's part of his job.

Jessie: He's got to watch it.

Jess: And we measure it by, do you remember CPI, PPI, and PCE? Yes.

Jessie: CPI is the Consumer Price Index.

Jess: It's showing what consumers are doing.

Jessie: And then PPI, like consumers being us, what we're spending on, like how we're spending.

Jess: PPI is the, is it Producer Price Index? Nailed it.

Jessie: OK.

Jess: So that's the producers, like the people producing the products that we're buying and shipping them to wherever we buy them, how that's going.

Jessie: What's the other one? Yeah, PCE is a Personal Consumption Expensures.

Jess: But that is the Fed's preferred gauge, is PCE.

Jessie: And we have a whole episode on the difference of those indices and what they're made up of.

Jess: But the Fed is focusing on, yes, the Fed is focusing on PCE as a gauge of inflation.

Jessie: It's the cost of your house, that's shelter.

Jess: Normally, it goes through services, goods, and the cost of living, those three categories.

Jessie: He looks at the totality of all of the data.

Jess: But if those start creeping up, uh-oh, too expensive, we've got some work to do.

Jessie: CPI, PPI, PCE, those are inflation measures.

Jess: He also looks at GDP, indication that there's growth within the economy, gross domestic product.

Jessie: Is the economy growing within our country's borders? He also looks at employment, because that's his other part of the dual mandate.

Jess: Does everyone have a job? What's that look like? Is there labor market participation? We're going to go through all those details.

Jessie: And he looks at other things like retail sales.

Jess: And there's a lot of other data and economic data that comes out throughout the month and quarterly that he looks at.

Jessie: But he reiterated that he is going to look at the totality of the data.

Jess: I loved the commentary this time.

Jessie: It was, hey, why aren't you lowering rates this time? What do you need to see? And he says, I need the totality of the data.

Jess: It's not black and white.

Jessie: And he wants consistency.

Jess: And there was a really bad inflation print the beginning of this year.

Jessie: Turns out it was just seasonal, quote, unquote.

Jess: And he said that it wasn't that bad.

Jessie: But he wants consistent data.

Jess: And so my thought is, the committee as a whole, they raised rates too late.

Jessie: And they did it really, really quickly.

Jess: And remember, they're the ones that push us into a recession.

Jessie: It's the Fed's actions that push us into a recession.

Jess: When they raise interest rates, they raise the cost to borrow money.

Jessie: If we already have credit card debt, then that's a variable.

Jess: That's going to go up.

Jessie: It's going to cost us more to carry that.

Jess: And it really drains your savings.

Jessie: That's the intent.

Jess: And it hurts, unfortunately, the lower income cohort the most.

Jessie: And he acknowledges that every meeting.

Jess: And he's like, you know what, out of control.

Jessie: Inflation is worse.

Jess: We have to do this.

Jessie: There is pain.

Jess: It is a bumpy ride.

Jessie: That's why they say soft landing and hard landing and where that's all coming from.

Jess: Because they're like, I'm raising rates.

Jessie: Hope I don't push you into a recession.

Jess: If it's a hard landing, we pushed you there.

Jessie: Stay with us.

Jess: We'll be right back.

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Jess: And me, Andrew Maynard.

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Jess: Subscribe to Modem Futura wherever you get your podcasts.

Jessie: We'll see you there.

Jess: See you then.

Jessie: So he's afraid that if he cut the rates now, that what, consumers would keep spending more and inflation would not come down? That's what it seemed like.

Jess: He said, we're confident that inflation is subsiding and any additional prints will strengthen that confidence.

Jessie: Those are almost the exact words.

Jess: And so it seems like he's looking at it quarterly.

Jessie: It's not exactly at 2%, which is his goal.

Jess: But he wants more data to have that confirmation.

Jessie: Seems like he's stalling.

Jess: It does.

Jessie: And the Fed is notoriously too late.

Jess: And that's why they always push us into a recession.

Jessie: And this is what we have to remember, works with long and variable lags.

Jess: If we're really still kind of seeing higher prices in the grocery stores and places like that, like the things that we've been buying at higher rates all the time, or shrink inflation, all these other things that are going on.

Jessie: Isn't the goal of this to, I don't know, people aren't supposed to be spending as much so that these big companies will stop increasing prices so much.

Jess: And if their profits start coming down and their stocks start going down and the stock markets, whatever, starts performing a little lower than it has been, it's been like at these all-time highs, S&P 500, then when is this all gonna start happening? Do you think, when are prices gonna come down? What's it gonna take for, I guess, the producers or the stores or the big companies to finally stop increasing their prices to keep getting these huge profit margins? That's been happening.

Jessie: That's the crazy part and why I am so perplexed.

Jess: We're in earning season right now.

Jessie: And I've got a couple headlines.

Jess: Procter & Gamble, they were missing results.

Jessie: They're short on revenue.

Jess: Procter & Gamble provides all of your household essentials.

Jessie: We're talking toothpaste.

Jess: Everything.

Jessie: Literally, go into the grocery aisle.

Jess: Probably half of that grocery store is P&G.

Jessie: Yep.

Jess: McDonald's, revenue decline.

Jessie: McDonald's has to start.

Jess: Yeah, they need to bring down their value meals and stuff.

Jessie: They just tried to raise prices and people were like, no.

Jess: We're not doing it.

Jessie: And they brought back some of those value meals.

Jess: It's a very selective consumer and they're shifting to lower cost goods and services, which means there is pain.

Jessie: So it's coming through in earnings, which is concerning because it's long and variable lags.

Jess: Because when we're looking at the CPI data that I'm showing you here, this is for June.

Jessie: We get it reported in July.

Jess: So we're looking at Q2 earnings right now.

Jessie: And the one that came out today, this is the shocking headline for me.

Jess: It was Wayfair.

Jessie: Wayfair has seen a decline from peak to trough in their sales that they haven't seen since 2008.

Jess: Wow.

Jessie: Yeah, that's interesting.

Jess: And Hershey's, they also missed.

Jessie: And they said the consumers are pulling back on their discretionary spending.

Jess: If you can't get chocolate, I mean, come on.

Jessie: Maybe, I wonder if like with some of those things with food related, we talked about Ozempic and these other weight loss medicines.

Jess: I wonder if that's just like affecting some of these frivolous food companies too.

Jessie: It's kind of trickling down from there as well.

Jess: And also just us not spending money on things that we don't really need.

Jessie: You're right.

Jess: That is absolutely could be a piece of it.

Jessie: But let's go through what the data said.

Jess: Those are just the headlines.

Jessie: Let's go through what he says.

Jess: So this is CPI.

Jessie: We're looking at all items, less food and energy.

Jess: We take out food and energy because it's considered volatile.

Jessie: That was at 6.6%.

Jess: Now it's at 3.3%.

Jessie: He's like, eh, I want more data.

Jess: Remember, this is not his preferred gauge.

Jessie: He looks at the totality of the data.

Jess: PCE, his preferred gauge is at 2.6%.

Jessie: I mean, that is a significant difference from where we were.

Jess: I think it's from seven to 2.6%.

Jessie: That is so close to two.

Jess: So concerned right now.

Jessie: And I've completely changed my tune after yesterday.

Jess: I thought he was going to cut.

Jessie: But he did say, and he said this in the previous meeting, he doesn't have to see it at 2% to cut.

Jess: So it's like, why are you waiting? Well, let's keep going through it because he wants 2%.

Jessie: He wants 2% and he wants additional data.

Jess: It's what he's going for.

Jessie: I really worked hard on this.

Jess: The praying hands.

Jessie: Yes.

Jess: You're not seeing the video version you're missing out right now.

Jessie: This will be posted to YouTube ASAP.

Jess: But he did say he's shifting his focus because now he thinks the risk is more neutral.

Jessie: So we call it the neutral rate, which is where do we think the Fed's target rate is going to be? Right now it's 5.25 to 5.5%.

Jess: And he's also looking at the risks.

Jessie: So the risk he feels like is coming into better balance with inflation.

Jess: And now he's focusing on the other side of his mandate, which is the employment picture.

Jessie: But this is what I'm scared of.

Jess: And this is the event risk before we shift over to employment.

Jessie: If you lower rates because you won the battle on inflation, the market is going to cheer.

Jess: That is going to be great.

Jessie: And that is going to be good.

Jess: However, you lower rates because you broke something.

Jessie: That's going to be bad.

Jess: And that's what event risk is.

Jessie: He said over and over, well, you know, if something happens, we have a toolbox.

Jess: Whereas before he didn't, he had interest rates close to zero.

Jessie: So how do you stimulate the economy? You lower interest rates.

Jess: Are we going to have negative interest rates like Japan did if something bad happened? Maybe.

Jessie: Could we afford it? No.

Jess: So meaning he has a toolkit, which is great, but you use tools when something is broken.

Jessie: Do you see what I mean? And the market may not react to that very well.

Jess: And that's event risk that we have.

Jessie: And what's crazy is what happened this morning.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: Like right after the meeting yesterday.

Jess: This morning we had initial jobless claims and it was higher than anticipated.

Jessie: Oh, that was not shown until this morning? That was not shown until this morning.

Jess: Oh.

Jessie: So this is being recorded Thursday.

Jess: What is today? August 1st.

Jessie: Tomorrow, August 2nd, we also have the monthly employment report.

Jess: So the market's going to crazy react to that.

Jessie: And we had a bunch of earnings today.

Jess: But let's go into the employment data that we have so far.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: Employment rate, we're at 4.1%.

Jessie: That is historically low, but that is creeping up.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: Ever so slightly.

Jess: We're going to get an update on this tomorrow.

Jessie: Last one we had was July 5th.

Jess: He said this, if there's a unexpected increase in unemployment, he'll have to cut rates.

Jessie: What we have to do now when we're assessing the market is good news, good news.

Jess: As in, if there is a lower unemployment rate, how is the market going to react? Is that going to be good? Because that means the consumer is okay.

Jessie: That's what I'm thinking right now.

Jess: That good news is good news.

Jessie: If bad news is good news, as in bad news is, we get this crazy spike in unemployment from 4.1% to, for example, God forbid, 5%.

Jess: That's bad.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: But then is the market going to sell off? Because it's like, oh no, the consumer's bad.

Jessie: Or is it going to rally because they say, you know what, interest rates are going to be cut.

Jess: So that's the open question.

Jessie: If the market sells off, that means there's like emotional investors or people who are like maybe older later and like trying to get the money they need now.

Jess: Or like if you have money goals that you were saving for and investing for, you're taking a nap because you're worried things are going to start going down pretty bad.

Jessie: Well, that's a piece of it.

Jess: Money managers are going to get this data and then there's going to be a rotation.

Jessie: If there is a sudden increase in unemployment and there is a sell-off, it depends on what sectors, but I would expect to see utility sectors purchase all of those defensives, healthcare, gold even spiked today, things like that.

Jess: And that's just the rotation of, okay, let's trim off our technology and some of these other stocks that have been doing really well and buy the stocks that do better in recessionary periods because then they're anticipating that.

Jessie: And then the retail investors are going to see it and then they get emotional and they follow through and then it exasperates it.

Jess: So is all this data going to help us self-directed investors? Are the things we should be taking away from this power point that you put together? And I know we don't want to be emotional investors and just like, oh, pull out or sell off everything or whatever.

Jessie: Basically, if this does tip us into a recession, is that what we're saying? Like that's, you're saying like buy the things or put money into the things from your portfolio that we know do better in a recession? That's such a good question.

Jess: If you're not buying stocks, don't do anything.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: First and foremost.

Jessie: Not financial advice, I don't know your personal situation.

Jess: Disclaimer, disclaimer.

Jessie: Yes, this is all about rates.

Jess: We've had so many episodes on lock in your rates and rates have reacted and now they're under, I think they dipped under 4%, which is crazy.

Jessie: If there is a spike in unemployment, I also expect rates to really come down because they're going to expect the Fed to cut.

Jess: And if you didn't lock in those rates, we told you so.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: So that's what we're talking about.

Jessie: Like the episodes we've had on CD laddering, bond ETFs, the bond market treasuries, all those things that had higher rates while the yield curve has been inverted.

Jess: The things are possibly about to start changing.

Jessie: It looks like they are.

Jess: And you know, do what you gotta do y'all.

Jessie: Right? Well, and this is the thing.

Jess: It is an uncertain if the stock market will rally or decline in response to these economic news coming out.

Jessie: Because I don't know if good news is good news or bad news is good news.

Jess: I'm not sure how the market will react.

Jessie: So that's what we're trying to figure out.

Jess: Yes, but it is more certain.

Jessie: It's still uncertain because no one knows anything for sure, but it is more certain that rates will fall in either scenario.

Jess: Which means if you have like a bond ETF like TLT, then that will rise because they work inversely.

Jessie: So the price of the bond will go up, but the rates are falling.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: Nonetheless, still more data.

Jess: Initial claims that came out today, you can see where it was rising.

Jessie: That's a concern.

Jess: We're watching that higher than anticipated.

Jessie: That was literally this morning.

Jess: I wanted to look at labor force participation rate because he talks about that.

Jessie: And we're back at pre-pandemic era.

Jess: But pre-pandemic era was not an inflationary environment.

Jessie: So there are a difference when you, because you have to look at the totality of the data.

Jess: He says that over and over again, we're around 63%.

Jessie: A lot of that is the younger generation and it has to do with immigration as well.

Jess: So that's important to know.

Jessie: This is what I think is so interesting.

Jess: Did you notice that the current rate fell off of this? Because the current rate is 5.25% to 5.5%.

Jessie: These are BIPs.

Jess: We always put them in round numbers or basis points.

Jessie: That's what the rates are at now is what you're saying.

Jess: Like if you go to get a loan, like an auto loan or anything like that, they've come, because they were like 7%, right? So this is the Fed target rate.

Jessie: And then that has an impact on everything else.

Jess: So this is the neutral rate.

Jessie: We talked about how the Fed works.

Jess: This is the FOMC rate.

Jessie: And then that affects everything else.

Jess: Okay, so the bank, the current like bank rates are 5.25% to 5.5%? Yep, the current Fed funds rate is what we would call it.

Jessie: Do you remember when the last time we looked at this tool that you could see the current rate on the probabilities and the meeting date of a cut completely gone? Yeah.

Jess: So that means- Oh, I see what you're saying.

Jessie: Yeah, 100% chance of a cut in September.

Jess: There's even a 30%, almost 27% chance that they'll do two rate cuts, a double rate cut.

Jessie: So cut it by half a percent.

Jess: So crazy.

Jessie: Has us to 3.5% by this time next year.

Jess: Hmm.

Jessie: Well, let us hope.

Jess: If you're like, you know, holding out on a big purchase, like a auto loan or something else, some sort of loan, you might want to hold out a little longer if you can.

Jessie: Exactly.

Jess: He did say some things that I thought were very interesting.

Jessie: He said, it's difficult to measure GDP.

Jess: It's been volatile.

Jessie: That is what's been his cushion, where he felt like he didn't have to act and could consume the data.

Jess: We have had surprises in GDP and that growth aspect.

Jessie: Whereas around the world, they haven't, because remember, inflation is a global problem.

Jess: And the Bank of England actually cut their rates today, this morning.

Jessie: Which is so crazy because normally they follow us.

Jess: So that was just so crazy to me.

Jessie: They better cut rates for us in September.

Jess: People are gonna be mad.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: It's just, he knows he has event risk.

Jessie: He says it's a normalizing labor market.

Jess: It's not a deteriorating one, but maybe today's numbers said perhaps it is deteriorating.

Jessie: And tomorrow will give us a more definitive picture, if it is.

Jess: But this is what I would love to know.

Jessie: Also, we have a new feature in Spotify where people can comment and we can reply back now.

Jess: I love that.

Jessie: Yeah, ask your questions if you have any.

Jess: Yes, but I see on TikTok and I wanna do a deep dive.

Jessie: So maybe our listeners can give us some insight.

Jess: Where in the data, we may not see a deteriorating labor environment because everyone has a job.

Jessie: But if you got laid off at your $100,000 job, but then you're going to work at Abercrombie and Fitch, that's not the same thing.

Jess: So even though on the surface, it looks like quality, maybe it's not.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: See what I mean? Yeah, so we need those numbers.

Jessie: And he did say the words, the downside risk to the employment mandate is clear now.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: All right.

Jess: He is afraid if he cuts rates too soon, he is going to unwind and undo all of this deflationary data and progress on inflation that he's made.

Jessie: However, now there's event risk.

Jess: And if he cuts too late, which the Fed always does, then we're gonna have a hard landing and he's gonna push us into a recession.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: Mm-hmm.

Jessie: We shall see.

Jess: Mm-hmm.

Jessie: Well, if that's the case, then the stock market takes a downturn.

Jess: It sucks because it means like a lot of us don't have the extra money to be investing, but then that's what I like to call the stock market going on sale.

Jessie: And it's like, if you do have money and you were wanting to invest in some of those, I don't know, stocks or anything that was kind of a higher price.

Jess: And you think, and you did your research and you know that it's most likely to come up again, especially something like the S&P 500 ETFs.

Jessie: But yeah, it's hard because you probably don't have the extra money.

Jess: But if you do, if you're fortunate enough to, you could be investing when that does happen.

Jessie: That's so true.

Jess: But also know time in the market is more important.

Jessie: It's a rollercoaster.

Jess: Oh yeah.

Jessie: Thankfully, you listen to this podcast and we'll tell you that it's gonna be a volatile one.

Jess: Don't take this as a cue to be an emotional investor and sell everything.

Jessie: You wanna keep it in there.

Jess: It's gonna come back up again, it always does.

Jessie: But if you have some things you wanna maybe look at, some sectors, we've told you how to do all of the research and ask questions, you know? Always, always ask the questions.

Jess: There's a positive side to this as well.

Jessie: And I think the important factor that we need to get across is if they lower interest rates, there is going to be some easing on you because now they're helping the consumer and tackling that demand side and trying to bring it down.

Jess: And I do think this would be good for the inflation picture because we have a housing supply issue and housing mortgages are gonna become more affordable.

Jessie: Auto loans are gonna be more affordable.

Jess: So if you were thinking about that, you know? Also something we kind of talked about briefly and we don't have to get too far into this because we do have that full clip about it.

Jessie: But the small cap, like when the interest rates become lower and rates get cut, that means like smaller businesses, smaller companies can afford to borrow money and do more with their businesses.

Jess: You might see them start to finally come up because having higher rates definitely affects the smaller and medium businesses.

Jessie: Yeah, and since our episode last week, there was so much disparity between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 or the S&P value index.

Jess: It's now almost at parity.

Jessie: Also the other earnings headlines, Nvidia shot up because the hyperscalers are spending so much on AI.

Jess: They told us that.

Jessie: And that caused Nvidia to react immediately.

Jess: Nvidia is last on the earnings cycle.

Jessie: It's late on this.

Jess: To like report their earnings? That's right.

Jessie: I think it's like August 20th.

Jess: Is that strategic? I don't know, perhaps.

Jessie: But it just be interesting to watch.

Jess: But to do it.

Jessie: Yeah, just a little watch for those support areas.

Jess: But that's what I'm watching for.

Jessie: So today we had Apple.

Jess: It actually did really well.

Jessie: All of them are still investing in AI.

Jess: They're spending more on AI than anticipated.

Jessie: There's this race to AI.

Jess: Now we're getting into this election.

Jessie: There's volatility that happens there.

Jess: Looking at policies.

Jessie: I feel like there's something new every day.

Jess: We're just here to provide the context.

Jessie: Investing is brat, just remember that.

Jess: Investing brats are.

Jessie: That's it.

Jess: I wanted to make sure that our listeners know about all of the data that's coming out.

Jessie: This episode's gonna be released at 8 a.m.

Jess: And then 30 minutes later, we'll get the employment reports.

Jessie: Right, so remember that when you're listening to it.

Jess: I'll update the show notes when it comes out.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: Just to check the show notes for the update because we're recording this a day before it's released.

Jessie: That means Jess is editing it tonight.

Jess: Thanks, Jess.

Jessie: And thank you for the beautiful PowerPoint.

Jess: If any of you have any questions, first of all, if you want to watch that PowerPoint, you have to watch it through Spotify or YouTube.

Jessie: All of our links are in the show notes.

Jess: And if you have any questions about any of the data that Jess has gone over with us or how this affects the stock market or our portfolios or anything that you didn't quite understand, you can either comment on Spotify.

Jessie: I think you can comment.

Jess: There's a social media type board on YouTube now as well where we can make posts and people can respond there.

Jessie: We can also respond to our videos.

Jess: You can find us on Instagram, TikTok, X all the places.

Jessie: Or you could email us by going to our website, www.marketmakeherpodcast.com.

Jess: We also have a free ebook you could download there.

Jessie: So lots of stuff for you.

Jess: Go check us out.

Jessie: Do it.

Jess: If you found this helpful and you want to share this PowerPoint with a friend or family or anyone, please do.

Jessie: It really helps us grow.

Jess: We show up for you.

Jessie: It's literally the best way that you can show up for us is just sharing the podcast.

Jess: Gets us on that algo.

Jessie: Share, leave a review.

Jess: Tell us if you love us.

Jessie: All those things.

Jess: Oh, I forgot to talk about my new job.

Jessie: We'll do that next time.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: Anyways, when you build knowledge, you break barriers.

Jessie: Remember, investing involves risk.

Jess: There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities.

Jessie: Market MakeHer provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only.

Jess: We are not registered financial advisors and do not provide personalized investment advice.

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