Ep 65: Bond Vigilantes Are So Back

Jess: Oh, Jess, on the last episode, you mentioned these bond vigilantes, and I myself do love a vigilante film.

Jessie: Some favorites that come to mind for me are Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and American Mary, but I think everyone or most people think of Batman when they think of vigilante.

Jess: So are bond vigilantes anything like those characters? Oh, actually, yes.

Jessie: The bond market is the most powerful and influential market.

Jess: Bond vigilantes, they use that power to influence the market, and they essentially take matters into their own hands.

Jessie: It happened during Reagan's term and throughout history.

Jess: Seems like they're back right now.

Jessie: Oh, that's fun.

Jess: Well, then let's learn about these bond vigilantes, shall we? Let's do it.

Jessie: Ding, ding, ding, ding.

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Jess: That's right.

Jessie: Today, we are keeping it current and talking about bond vigilantes.

Jess: Okay, Jess.

Jessie: We briefly discussed bond vigilantes on the last episode, but this is definitely something I have never heard of before.

Jess: What is on the agenda today? All right.

Jessie: Here is what I have for you.

Jess: One, a ton of Taylor Swift analogies.

Jessie: Of course.

Jess: So, warning.

Jessie: Excited.

Jess: We're going to talk about what are bond vigilantes, review some of the bond basics, yield curve basics, what it is, where it came from, and why it matters now.

Jessie: I think we should go into some historical examples of bond vigilantes and actions, the 1980s during the Reagan era, 1990s during Clinton, and post-GFC, great financial crisis in 2008, and then we'll bring it back to today.

Jess: Are they back? Why? Because that's a big question, and why the bond market is stressing for revenge.

Jessie: Mm-hmm.

Jess: I like it.

Jessie: All right.

Jess: So, first things first, what are bond vigilantes? Are they good or bad? And how do they potentially help us self-directed investors? So, bond vigilantes do not start it.

Jessie: They tell us how it ends.

Jess: Lately, they've been dressing for revenge.

Jessie: I'm on three so far, by the way.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: The treasury market, it's a powerhouse, like Taylor Swift, but it has a major influence on everything, like we discussed last episode.

Jess: All right.

Jessie: So, let's do a little TLDR, if you will, of last week's episode, in case you missed it.

Jess: So, a treasury is a fixed income product, commonly referred to as bonds, which is basically debt.

Jessie: For context, companies can issue stock, which is partial ownership of a company, right? So, companies can also issue debt in the form of a fixed income product.

Jess: So, you lend the money and they pay you back the amount plus interest.

Jessie: Get it? That's why it's called fixed income.

Jess: It's in the name.

Jessie: It's always in the name.

Jess: And governments can issue debt, too.

Jessie: This comes from the treasury, and the treasury does this to fund our very large and growing fiscal deficit.

Jess: This is how the government gets more money to spend on fiscal policy.

Jessie: So, the treasuries are issued with different maturities and auctioned off to get a yield, which is the interest paid back to you.

Jess: If you were to plot the maturities and their yields on a line chart, you would get what's called the yield curve.

Jessie: The yield curve can tell us growth, inflation, expectations, and sets the barring rate for everyone.

Jess: You, me, companies, the government, all of us.

Jessie: So, that's kind of a little synopsis of the last episode, but be sure to check that one out, too.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: It took 30 minutes and put it into, I don't know how long that was, but a lot shorter time frame.

Jess: But, yes.

Jessie: So, the Fed impacts the front end of the curve, which are shorter term maturities, and market mechanics, which are bond buyers and sellers, that affects the long end of the curve.

Jess: And when we say short and long, we're talking about time.

Jessie: So, like one year to 30 years, basically.

Jess: The shorter term fixed income products are one to three years, then you've got like three to five, or is it more? Yeah.

Jessie: There's five, and then there's 10.

Jess: So, three, five to 10, I'd say, in the middle.

Jessie: Yep.

Jess: And then 10, 20, 30, about the end.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: So, that's what we're talking about.

Jessie: We're talking about time.

Jess: So, when they affect the long end of the curve, how do bond buyers and sellers do that? And that means they move interest rates higher or lower, right? Like, how do they do that? Bonds are issued their yield during the auction process.

Jessie: And then they start trading on the secondary market, which is secondhand.

Jess: So, just like stocks, they get issued via IPO.

Jessie: They're secondhand because they're literally exchanging hands.

Jess: You're trading that bond with someone else.

Jessie: That's why it's called trading.

Jess: Literally, everything is in the name.

Jessie: But bonds have their par value, which is just the principal amount of debt owed, and then they have their interest rate, also known as the yield, also known as a coupon.

Jess: And fun fact, they're called coupons because when you'd issue a bond, like you could Google what a bond looks like at the bottom, they literally have coupons that you would bring to get your interest payments and clip them.

Jessie: That's where it derived from.

Jess: That's right.

Jessie: We did talk about that, I think, on Internal Bonds.

Jess: We have an episode on that as well.

Jessie: Yes, we do.

Jess: But what you need to know for your little prerequisites for today, bond prices rise when there is a lot or a large amount of buyers.

Jessie: That makes yields fall.

Jess: And bond prices fall when there are a large amount of sellers.

Jessie: That makes yields rise.

Jess: Before we go any further, I just want to clarify.

Jessie: Just like how when you buy a stock on the secondhand market, the stock market, you are buying a stock from someone who previously owned it, not the company directly.

Jess: You're saying when you buy a bond on the bond market, someone has already bought the initial debt from the government, and now you're just trading a bond that someone previously bought and buying that from them based on what the interest rate is now? Yeah, it trades hands.

Jessie: So is the difference that when you're buying a bond from a brokerage firm, from the bond market, it's different? If you want to do the initial process where you're buying it directly, the government's debt directly, you have to do that through treasury.gov.

Jess: Is that the difference? No, you don't have to.

Jessie: Some brokerage firms allow you to do it directly.

Jess: It depends on their platform.

Jessie: Is there a difference in when you're buying it for the first time, the debt for the first time, as opposed to when you're buying it from somebody else? The first time is the auction process.

Jess: So they're auctioned off.

Jessie: It comes on the economic calendar, so the treasury announces what's going to be issued.

Jess: They're auctioned off.

Jessie: If you want to participate in that bond auction, you can.

Jess: Sometimes you can do it online with your brokerage firm.

Jessie: But yeah, you can.

Jess: Some brokers allow you to participate in IPOs.

Jessie: Others don't.

Jess: It depends on if they're themselves part of the syndicate.

Jessie: Bonds and yields have an inverse relationship, right? They move opposite of each other? Yes.

Jess: So example, if the bond has a par value or principal, their initial issuance of $1,000 and a yield of 5% on auction, so it gets assigned that yield on auction, it has been issued.

Jessie: That 5% on the 1,000 stays.

Jess: That's its constant.

Jessie: You're getting $50 annually.

Jess: It's 5% on 1,000 is 50.

Jessie: The bond enters the secondary market, so it starts trading.

Jess: So I say it starts trading, get it? Like it trades hands.

Jessie: And say there are a lot of sellers in the secondary market.

Jess: That puts downwards pressure on price, just like it does to stock, because there's more supply than demand.

Jessie: Everything's supply and demand.

Jess: So continuing on this example, say the bond is sold for $900, went down $100.

Jessie: Well, you're still getting 5% on $1,000 of its principal value, or $50, but you paid $900 for that.

Jess: So you're getting $50, but you paid $900.

Jessie: That means the current yield of the bond is 5.5%, because if you were to divide $50 by $900, you'd get 5.5%.

Jess: So you bought it for $900, so you're going to get the full principal amount at maturity.

Jessie: This is an extreme example, but that's how prices and yields have an inverse relationship.

Jess: You can see as the price goes down, the yield would go up, and then the inverse is also true.

Jessie: Yes, that makes sense.

Jess: And when you say the par value, like we're saying the par value for this example was $1,000, is that what you're saying when the debt was very first issued? That was the par value.

Jessie: That value can go up and down now on the secondhand bond market.

Jess: Okay, so we got that covered.

Jessie: So if there were a large bond holder out there, you could influence the yield curve then.

Jess: And like we talked about last episode, this affects you and I, the average person, because rising bond yields equal higher borrowing costs, which equals higher mortgage rates, credit card rates, and borrowing costs.

Jessie: Yeah, that's right.

Jess: And I want you to focus on large buyers and sellers.

Jessie: That is very key for today's episode, because everything is supply and demand.

Jess: And when that is out of balance, things move a lot.

Jessie: Bond vigilantes are big, big investors in the bond market who sell bonds, which causes yields to rise.

Jess: And they do that when they believe fiscal or monetary policies are unstable.

Jessie: They don't agree with it.

Jess: They act as watchdogs over government policy, and they use the bond market literally as their tool of protest.

Jessie: Hmm.

Jess: That's pretty cool.

Jessie: The bond vigilantes always rise above.

Jess: The bond vigilantes know what people want.

Jessie: Someone sweet and kind of fun.

Jess: The bond vigilantes simply had enough.

Jessie: I'm having so much fun with this.

Jess: So these big bond traders are selling their bonds, making yields rise to get someone's attention because they don't agree with the fiscal policy.

Jessie: That's right.

Jess: They didn't start it, but they can tell us how it is.

Jessie: Everything really is in the name, as always.

Jess: So who came up with this term bond vigilantes? Was in the 1980s by Ed Yardini, which he produces really amazing research, by the way.

Jessie: Definitely encourage you to read some of it.

Jess: But that was during the Reagan era, which is where we had a very large deficit.

Jessie: So there's a connection to government spending and inflation concerns when this term was coined, but particularly during the Reagan administration.

Jess: It's hard to prove.

Jessie: Very important.

Jess: What do you mean? As in we know something is happening to yields, but we can't see, oh, this big trader is doing something.

Jessie: Oh, so they're trying to get the government's attention, I guess.

Jess: And why does that matter? Yeah, because rising bond yields, like you said, and like we talked about last episode, signal increased borrowing costs for governments, for businesses, for individuals, the consumer, you and I.

Jessie: That forces governments to take notice.

Jess: Think about the president.

Jessie: They want a strong economy.

Jess: High borrowing costs, that slows growth.

Jessie: It doesn't accelerate it.

Jess: It does not support that.

Jessie: That makes sense.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: So then a bond vigilante is a very large, large, large bond trader or traders who sell bonds, which causes yields to rise.

Jess: And they do this in protest of fiscal policy, which is government policy, or monetary policy, which is Fed policy.

Jessie: And this increases the borrowing costs for everyone, including the government and us, you and I, and businesses, which forces the government to take notice or change policy, which is pretty cool.

Jess: Yeah, correct.

Jessie: You can see how powerful the bond market is.

Jess: It can influence what we borrow, consumer behavior, even monetary and fiscal policy.

Jessie: It can influence policy and what we borrow.

Jess: That's crazy.

Jessie: It's literally the Taylor Swift of the stock market.

Jess: And lately she's been dressing for revenge.

Jessie: So much fun with this analogy.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: So has this happened before? Who's some vigilantes? Let's have some examples.

Jess: So let's start when it was coined in the 1980s and the Reagan era.

Jessie: So during Reagan's administration, the US saw really large tax cuts, a increased defense spending, and that led to really big budget deficits.

Jess: Fiscal policy can do that, right? The 70s is very notorious for a very large resurgence of inflation.

Jessie: And so there was still a lingering issue from the 1970s inflation.

Jess: And bond investors are really concerned about the government's ability to manage these deficits without fueling inflation.

Jessie: Oh, okay.

Jess: So that's the context of what happened.

Jessie: In come the bond vigilantes.

Jess: There was selling off of treasury bonds that caused bond prices to drop and yield to rise very, very sharply.

Jessie: So the spike in yields made borrowing a lot more expensive for the government, because think about this.

Jess: They were increasing the deficit.

Jessie: Their tax cuts increased the deficit because that takes away revenue.

Jess: If we're spending more on defense budgets, well, that also increases the deficit.

Jessie: So it made it more expensive for the government to borrow.

Jess: And that acted as a signal that investors, they were losing confidence in fiscal policy, in fiscal discipline.

Jessie: So the selling of those treasury bonds, the bond vigilantes coming in, that put pressure on the Federal Reserve, in this case, to start tightening monetary policy to control inflation.

Jess: But that came at the cost of slowing economic growth.

Jessie: So what was the outcome? Did the president do anything? Well, then that moves into the 1990s.

Jess: Because we've always spent a lot, the U.S.

Jessie: has always spent a lot in the military, and tax cuts depend on the president and what's going on, like what the president's doing and who they're giving tax cuts to and whatever.

Jess: So these things change throughout time, but the deficit, I'm guessing, has only grown.

Jessie: Well, it's changed in the 90s.

Jess: Before we move jackets, the big issue under the Reagan administration was super high deficits and out of control inflation, really high inflation from the 1970s.

Jessie: That was a very bad resurgence of inflation.

Jess: So the intent of the bond vigilantes at this time was to put pressure on monetary policy to stop government spending so much, stop that route to a really big deficit, but also to get the Fed to take inflation seriously, because it was just completely out of hand.

Jessie: So the Fed at that time was not lowering the federal funds quick enough? Not raising.

Jess: Oh, not raising it to help? Tackle inflation.

Jessie: That's right.

Jess: All right.

Jessie: Now we go into the 1990s, and now we're getting into Clinton's fiscal tightening.

Jess: So this is Bill Clinton.

Jessie: He took office in 1993.

Jess: Bond vigilantes are already on high alert because of this overgrowing federal deficit, rising national debt, yields.

Jessie: In October 1993 to November 1994, the 10-year yield rose from 5.2% to 8%.

Jess: That's a big jump.

Jessie: And remember, the 10-year is tied to mortgages, so the strain on the consumer.

Jess: That signaled skepticism about the government's ability to manage its finances again.

Jessie: And this is known as the Great Bond Massacre.

Jess: That's the title of it.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: I did not know that.

Jessie: It's an unofficial name.

Jess: Yes.

Jessie: Oh, it's not the official name? I mean, it's the official unofficial name.

Jess: Oh, okay.

Jessie: You can Google it.

Jess: A Taylor Swift reference? This is like an unofficial name? This is not.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: It is not a Taylor Swift reference.

Jessie: Just clarifying.

Jess: I love that we need that clarification.

Jessie: So enter the bond vigilantes and the Great Bond Massacre.

Jess: Rising yields.

Jessie: They start selling pressure.

Jess: So big bond traders come in.

Jessie: They start selling.

Jess: Rising yields send a message to the Clinton administration.

Jessie: They demanded fiscal discipline to avoid further sell-offs.

Jess: And at that time, Clinton was also facing pressure from Greenspan, who is one of Papa Powell's heroes, by the way.

Jessie: Was this the Fed chairperson? Yes.

Jess: That was the Fed chairperson.

Jessie: And Greenspan emphasized the need for deficit reduction in order to sustain long-term economic growth.

Jess: Sounds a little familiar right now.

Jessie: So the administration, and this is very, very interesting, the outcome of this one, they adopted policies to reduce the deficit.

Jess: There was spending cuts.

Jessie: There were tax increases as well under Clinton.

Jess: Bond yields, they dropped to 4%.

Jessie: So from 8%, they went to 4% by November of 1998.

Jess: So they calmed.

Jessie: That was about the end of Clinton's presidency.

Jess: And the U.S.

Jessie: had achieved a budget surplus, a very rare occurrence in our modern history.

Jess: Surplus? You mean the deficit had a surplus? It wasn't like we weren't in debt? Correct.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: Oh, I didn't know that was possible.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: Clinton did it.

Jessie: Seems like we're always in so much debt.

Jess: The country is always in a ton of debt.

Jessie: I didn't know that there's a chance of a surplus.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: Clinton did it too.

Jess: Interesting.

Jessie: Yep.

Jess: All of this was big bond traders.

Jessie: Now let's talk about some more recent history.

Jess: We're fast forwarding now from the 1990s, or we ended in 1998.

Jessie: Now we're going 20 years later to 2008, the great financial crisis and its aftermath.

Jess: Yes.

Jessie: I remember that.

Jess: It was...

Jessie: I started my career in finance when it was over, July 2009.

Jess: Very interesting.

Jessie: I did buy a house during that time, so...

Jess: Me too.

Jessie: Actually, I bought a self-sell.

Jess: That did help.

Jessie: So during the great recession though, governments all around the world, including the U.S., they implemented very massive stimulus programs, central banks slashed interest rates to zero.

Jess: And the Fed also launched a quantitative easing, or buying up government bonds to inject liquidity into the economy to keep interest flows.

Jessie: We talked about that a very long time ago.

Jess: What is the Fed and what is their policy, quantitative tightening and quantitative easing.

Jessie: That's a very important component of this, because the person who holds the most treasuries right now is the Federal Reserve.

Jess: The biggest holder of our debt is the Federal Reserve.

Jessie: Let's just keep that in mind while we keep going.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: The bond vigilantes were essentially missing from this equation.

Jess: And people are like, where were they? Well, let's think about that.

Jessie: Their influence waned in 2008 because central banks became the dominant forces in bond markets because of quantitative easing and what they were doing with their balance sheets, because they were purchasing a large amount of bonds.

Jess: The central banks kept yields artificially low.

Jessie: It muted their protest.

Jess: So if there is big sellers, if that's offset by big buyers, the Fed, the protest didn't work.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: So they kind of like figured out, the banks like figured out a workaround to subdue the vigilantes.

Jessie: Not the banks.

Jess: The Federal Reserve did to stimulate the economy.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: Wait, we keep saying how rates haven't been at this level since the great financial crisis in 2008.

Jessie: So the Fed was a big buyer.

Jess: They were the big holder.

Jessie: Basically, these historic examples are saying that the only person who can really battle the bond vigilantes is the Fed.

Jess: Yes, but also the treasury, because it's all about bringing supply and demand back into balance.

Jessie: So the treasury could not issue as much debt like during Clinton, right? That calmed it down because issuing debt is still supply.

Jess: So if you stop issuing so much supply, that reduces the supply.

Jessie: It's all about bringing supply and demand back into balance.

Jess: That's what tames those yields, which controls the yields, really.

Jessie: Or the Fed could buy treasuries, which is a form of quantitative easing, which stimulates the economy.

Jess: Okay.

Jessie: Got it.

Jess: But then coming to today, where we have a very large deficit, where are the bond vigilantes at now? Are they back? So this is speculation, because remember, you can't prove it.

Jessie: There's cause for correlation, and that's the way it seems.

Jess: It seems this way in all of these historical examples, thus the way this term was coined.

Jessie: But in November of 2023, the Fed funds rate was at 5.5%, and the 10-year at that time was at 3.7%.

Jess: Today, the Fed funds rate is at 4.75%, because they dropped it by 75 basis points.

Jessie: And the 10-year is at 4.3%, or about 4.3%.

Jess: It's moving in the wrong direction.

Jessie: And the only explanation for that is bond vigilantes selling pressure.

Jess: So that's what kind of gives us a clue that's how they're doing their work.

Jessie: What we have to understand is, are yields rising because of inflation expectations? Is this action because of a protest of monetary policy, or is it a protest of fiscal policy, or perhaps even both? Remember how we talked about it could be a scry with inflation expectations? Well, if it's inflation expectations, are they expecting the Fed to be more restrictive? Or is it because there's an expectation of a super high deficit with fiscal policy, and there's demanding intervention? Perhaps both.

Jess: I personally think I'm leaning towards both.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: But didn't Japan also sell a lot of the debt they owned of the US? They were like the, after the Federal Reserve, Japan owned most of the US debt.

Jessie: Didn't they just sell off a bunch of bonds too? They did it right before the election.

Jess: So that would have happened.

Jessie: So it is literally at that time, continuous supply versus demand, because these things trade so much a day, a ton a day.

Jess: Good question though.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: All right.

Jessie: But there's your bond vigilantes.

Jess: Let's do a little recap, shall we? Yes.

Jessie: All right.

Jess: So bond vigilantes, what are they? I keep saying vigilante and vigilante, I guess either way, however you say it.

Jessie: A bond vigilante, so they're investors who protest unsustainable fiscal policies by selling bonds and raising yields and pressuring governments to act responsibly.

Jess: And these bond vigilantes are like big time investors.

Jessie: Huge.

Jess: They have to be a ton.

Jessie: Yeah.

Jess: They have to be able to move things, make a difference, make impact.

Jessie: So the key historical moments of this bond vigilante, 1980s is I guess when it first came about in the Reagan era.

Jess: The bond vigilantes responded to deficits with higher yields, influencing inflation policy, which is pretty cool.

Jessie: Then in the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, the bond vigilantes pushed for deficit reduction, leading to a budget surplus.

Jess: So no longer a deficit, now we have a surplus.

Jessie: And then coming all the way to the 2020s, we're seeing resurfacing amid inflation signaling concerns over rising government debt, because we're in some debt once again.

Jess: And why does all this matter to any of us? Because their actions actually influence government borrowing costs and impact everyday expenses like mortgages and credit card rates, which definitely affect all of us.

Jessie: So I think the big takeaway here is that bond vigilantes are a financial force holding governments accountable through the bond market, which is pretty cool.

Jess: Yeah.

Jessie: They're like the Taylor Swift of the stock market.

Jess: I think it's the perfect analogy.

Jessie: You've said a few things are the Taylor Swift of the stock market now, so are we going with bond vigilantes are now? Have I said that? I feel like you have.

Jess: You're like, it's the Taylor Swift of this.

Jessie: It's the Taylor Swift of this.

Jess: Everything's the Taylor Swift, Jessie.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: Well, the bond market is the most powerful, so I'm going to stick with this one.

Jessie: Okay.

Jess: I'm going to hold you to it.

Jessie: Great.

Jess: I'm really excited for today's closing.

Jessie: Vigilante things from the bond market's perspective increase the yield sharp enough to kill a man.

Jess: You did some bad things, but I'm the worst of them.

Jessie: Lately, bonds have been dressing for revenge.

Jess: I didn't take it too far.

Jessie: See? All right.

Jess: Which reminds me of a Cypress Hill song, so I'm going to let it go.

Jessie: Fair.

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